Live Performance

Track Record

Live performance, no cherry‑picks

StrategyBOUNCE_SHORT (4h Regime-Aware)

Enginev5 (live since 18.04.2026)

Window4–14 April 2026

Sample size51 live trades · 1 PAUSED_PANIC episode

Statistical confidencelow (n<100, single episode)

Episode partially traded under predecessor engine (same signal logic, no Coin‑Discipline‑Filter — active since 24.04.2026).

April 2026

April Panic 2026 — F&G Extreme Fear

Signals

Settled

Win Rate

34.7%

Total R

+37.28R

Avg Winner

+4.08R

Avg Loser

−1.00R

Edge derives from asymmetry, not win rate. Each winner averages 4.1× the loss of each loser. Strategy fires only in PAUSED_PANIC regime (BTC < SMA200, F&G ≤20).

Coin breakdown (n ≥ 10)

NIGHTUSDT

17 trades · 62.5% WR · +36.39R total

OOS Backtest: No OOS data — token listed March 2026

Live performance dominant, but single episode without OOS validation. More data needed before edge confirmation.

ONTUSDT

11 trades · 54.5% WR · +13.99R total

OOS Backtest: 26 OOS trades · 42.3% WR · +0.81R exp

Live above OOS expectation. Possible upside outlier or edge improvement — more data needed.

ENAUSDT

n < 10

4 trades · 25.0% WR · +4.90R total

OOS Backtest: 15 OOS trades · 40.0% WR · +0.15R exp

Live below OOS expectation. n too small for claim. +4.90R driven by single large winner (+7.9R).

Methodology in action

GUSDT — Backtest predicted failure, live confirmed

OOS Backtest (Apr 2026)

35 OOS trades

22.9% WR

-0.43R exp

Live (Apr 4–14)

8 trades

0.0% WR

-8.00R total

Backtest framework correctly disqualified this coin before live trading. Coin‑Discipline‑Filter (live since 24.04.2026) now automatically removes coins with WR<40% or avgR<0 after n=5 trades.

Complete trade record

We show every trade, including losers

Coin	Trades	Win Rate	Total R
NIGHTUSDT	17	62.5%	+36.39R
ONTUSDT	11	54.5%	+13.99R
ENAUSDT	4	25.0%	+4.90R
FETUSDT	2	0.0%	−2.00R
NOMUSDT	4	0.0%	−3.00R
TAOUSDT	5	0.0%	−5.00R
GUSDT	8	0.0%	−8.00R
Total	51	34.7%	+37.28R

Only coins with n ≥ 10 settled trades are discussed individually above. All trades shown here are live and unfiltered.

R‑Multiples (TP_HIT × risk_reward + SL_HIT × −1.0) are not account returns. Position sizing and trade sequencing affect actual performance significantly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Last updated: 2026-05-18 · Auto‑generated from live database